feat: Event-Study-Script (Forward-Returns je Quelle/Horizont vs. Baseline)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

package.json

@@ -11,7 +11,8 @@
     "grid": "bun run src/server/scripts/grid-walkforward.ts",
     "db:generate": "bunx drizzle-kit generate",
     "db:migrate": "bun run src/server/db/migrate.ts",
-    "trump:backfill": "bun run src/server/scripts/trump-backfill.ts"
+    "trump:backfill": "bun run src/server/scripts/trump-backfill.ts",
+    "trump:study": "bun run src/server/scripts/trump-event-study.ts"
   },
   "dependencies": {
     "drizzle-orm": "^0.44.0",

src/server/scripts/trump-event-study.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+import { isNotNull } from 'drizzle-orm';
+import { db, sql } from '../db/client';
+import { trumpEvents } from '../db/schema';
+import { getCandles } from '../market/candle-store';
+import { DEFAULT_EXEC } from '../engine/portfolio';
+import type { Pair } from '../types';
+
+const M15 = 15 * 60 * 1000;
+const HORIZONS_H = [24, 48, 60, 72, 120];
+const COST = (1 - DEFAULT_EXEC.slippage) * (1 - DEFAULT_EXEC.feeRate) / ((1 + DEFAULT_EXEC.slippage) * (1 + DEFAULT_EXEC.feeRate)); // Round-Trip-Faktor
+
+const events = await db.select().from(trumpEvents).where(isNotNull(trumpEvents.instrument));
+type Row = { source: string; horizon: number; ret: number };
+const rows: Row[] = [];
+const baselines = new Map<string, Map<number, number>>(); // instrument → horizon → mean ret
+
+for (const ev of events) {
+  const instrument = ev.instrument as Pair;
+  const evTs = ev.eventTs.getTime();
+  const candles = await getCandles(instrument, evTs - M15, evTs + 130 * 3600_000);
+  const entryIdx = candles.findIndex((c) => c.ts >= evTs);
+  if (entryIdx < 0) continue;
+  const entry = candles[entryIdx].open;
+  for (const h of HORIZONS_H) {
+    const exitTs = candles[entryIdx].ts + h * 3600_000;
+    const exit = candles.findLast((c) => c.ts <= exitTs);
+    if (!exit || exit.ts < exitTs - 2 * M15) continue; // Horizont nicht abgedeckt
+    rows.push({ source: ev.source, horizon: h, ret: (exit.close / entry) * COST - 1 });
+  }
+  // Baseline je Instrument einmalig: unbedingter Mean-Forward-Return über alle 15m-Starts
+  if (!baselines.has(instrument)) {
+    const all = await getCandles(instrument);
+    const byH = new Map<number, number>();
+    for (const h of HORIZONS_H) {
+      const stepIdx = (h * 3600_000) / M15;
+      let s = 0, n = 0;
+      for (let i = 0; i + stepIdx < all.length; i += 16) { // jede 4h ein Sample, deterministisch
+        s += (all[i + stepIdx].close / all[i].open) * COST - 1;
+        n++;
+      }
+      byH.set(h, n > 0 ? s / n : NaN);
+    }
+    baselines.set(instrument, byH);
+  }
+}
+
+const fmt = (x: number) => (100 * x).toFixed(2) + '%';
+const lines: string[] = ['# Event-Study Trump-Copy — ' + new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10), ''];
+for (const source of ['onchain', 'truth']) {
+  lines.push(`## Quelle: ${source}`, '', '| Horizont | n | Mean | Median | Hit-Rate |', '|---|---|---|---|---|');
+  for (const h of HORIZONS_H) {
+    const rs = rows.filter((r) => r.source === source && r.horizon === h).map((r) => r.ret).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    if (rs.length === 0) { lines.push(`| ${h}h | 0 | — | — | — |`); continue; }
+    const mean = rs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / rs.length;
+    const median = rs[Math.floor(rs.length / 2)];
+    const hit = rs.filter((r) => r > 0).length / rs.length;
+    lines.push(`| ${h}h | ${rs.length} | ${fmt(mean)} | ${fmt(median)} | ${(100 * hit).toFixed(0)}% |`);
+  }
+  lines.push('');
+}
+lines.push('## Baselines (unbedingter Mean-Forward-Return, gleiche Kosten)', '');
+for (const [inst, byH] of baselines) {
+  lines.push(`- ${inst}: ` + HORIZONS_H.map((h) => `${h}h ${fmt(byH.get(h)!)}`).join(' · '));
+}
+const out = lines.join('\n') + '\n';
+await Bun.write('docs/event-study-trump-2026-06-12.md', out);
+console.log(out);
+await sql.end();